AL East Preview and Predictions – Will The Yankees Repeat?

Ahhhh. The crack of the bat. The smell of grass. The taste of a Fenway Frank. Indeed, spring training has arrived and the boys of summer are back readying themselves for another glorious baseball season.

Over the course of Spring Training, TSJ will get you ready for the 2010 season by providing breakdowns for all six divisions in the American and National Leagues. We start with the vaunted AL East – featuring the defending World Series Champion New York Yankees – and their quest to repeat.

NEW YORK YANKEES
2009 Record: 103-59, 1st
2010 Prediction: 99-63, 2nd

Key Additions: CF Curtis Granderson, RHP Javier Vazquez, DH Nick Johnson
Key Departures: OF Johnny Damon, OF Melky Cabrera, DH/OF Hideki Matsui
Player to Watch: RHP Joba Chamberlain

Derek Jeter. Alex Rodriguez. Mark Teixiera. CC Sabathia. Mariano Rivera. Those Damn Yankees.

Already the best team that money can buy, it appears that the rich keep getting richer. Coming off their 27th World Series title last season, GM Brian Cashman pulled off a shrewd move in the offseason – bolstering his club by plucking Curtis Granderson from Detroit. Granderson will surely be a fixture in the Yanks’ outfield for years to come and presents the Bronx Bombers with an immediate upgrade – both in the field and as a leadoff hitter – over the departed Johnny Damon.

A-Rod Is Already Off To A Bad Start This Spring

However, Cashman was unsuccessful in adequately replacing Hideki Matsui at DH by bringing in Nick Johnson. In addition to his mediocre numbers over the past few years, Johnson has a history of health problems and – surprise, surprise – is already battling an injury this spring. Merely expect the Yanks to solve this problem by bolstering their already disgusting lineup with a veteran bat or two come August’s trade deadline.

Then there’s A-Rod. Just when you thought he was finally heading into spring healthy and controversy-free, apparently that’s not the case at all. Reports suggest that he’s pissed off the Yankees’ Brass for hanging them out to dry after not informing them right away that he’s been contacted by the FBI to testify against a Canadian doctor with links to PED’s. There’s a controversy that won’t go away anytime soon.

Distractions aside, the only real question facing the Yankees is age. Will this be the year when the likes of Jeter, Rivera, Jorge Posada, Andy Pettitte – or even A-Rod – begin to break down as ballplayers? Perhaps. But my guess is they’ll have enough in the tank to take another serious run at the division title and trying to repeat as World Champions.

That is, if they can ever get serious. Check out the video and you’ll see what I mean.

BOSTON RED SOX
2009 Record: 95-67, 2nd
2010 Prediction: 101-61, 1st

Key Additions: 3B Adrian Beltre, SS Marco Scutaro, CF Mike Cameron, RHP John Lackey, RHP Boof Bonser
Key Departures: LF Jason Bay, 1B Casey Kotchman, RP Billy Wagner, RP Takashi Saito, SS Alex Gonzalez
Player to Watch: LF Jacoby Ellsbury

Following back-to-back 95-win wildcard seasons, the Red Sox are in the best position they’ve been in years to make a run at the Yankees and the AL East Division crown – thanks to arguably the best starting staff in all of baseball. Josh Beckett – who’s entering a contract season – will certainly have extra motivation ($$$) to pitch well, putting him in position to win 20-games and challenge for the AL Cy Young Award. The Sox’ biggest off-season signing was John Lackey, who will solidify himself as either the #2 or #3, along with the ever-emerging Jon Lester. If that wasn’t enough, add in to the mix Clay Buchholz and Daisuke Matsuzaka, who should rebound from a disappointing ‘09 campaign (thanks in no small part to his heavy workload in the World Baseball Classic last spring), and you have a rotation that is capable of reeling off double-digit win streaks at various points throughout the year by themselves. It doesn’t hurt to have Jonathan Papelbon as your closer either.

Heaven Knows If Ortiz Can Have A Hot Start

Sure, it would appear on the surface that the loss of Jason Bay – and his 36 HR and 119 RBI – leaves a (green) monstrous hole in the middle of the Sox’ order. But solid hitters like Kevin Youkilis, Dustin Pedroia and Jacoby Ellsbury, along with new acquisitions Mike Cameron, Adrian Beltre and Marco Scutaro, are more than capable of filling the void left behind by Bay.

It will be interesting to see, however, if David Ortiz can improve his .238 average from a season ago and get off to a better start this year. Although his numbers ended up as decent, there has to be concern in Red Sox nation that Ortiz, 34, is basically past his prime. Those close to the team – including Sox’ analyst Jerry Remy – believe that with Bay gone, Big Papi is the key to the offense in ‘10.

Hey, with pitching that good, it probably won’t make that much of a difference.

TAMPA BAY RAYS
2009 Record: 84-78, 3rd
2010 Prediction: 90-72, 3rd

Key Additions: RHP Rafael Soriano, C Kelly Shoppach, 1B Dan Johnson
Key Departures: 2B Akinori Iwamura, C Gregg Zaun, OF Gabe Gross
Player to Watch: LHP David Price

Longoria Is Ready To Emerge As The Rays' Leader

Manager Joe Maddon resumes his role at the helm of a team that legitimately has the best – if not only – chance to give the juggernaut Yankees and Red Sox a run for their money in the AL East. Not a lot has changed during this past offseason for Tampa Bay, with the core group still intact from their 2008 Pennant-winning edition. The Rays boast an impressive array of speed and power in their lineup, with the likes of Carlos Pena, Evan Longoria, Carl Crawford and BJ Upton leading the charge. If their offense can put it all together the way they did two seasons ago, the Rays should have no problem putting up some serious runs on the board this year.

The starting pitching also has the potential to be very good. James Shields and Matt Garza make a formidable one-two punch, with Jeff Niemann as a legitimate #3 after coming on strong in the 2nd half of last season (only one loss after August 1st). The wildcard in their rotation will be former 1st overall pick David Price, and whether he can finally emerge as an everyday starter. My hunch is that he will step up his game, helping to make the Rays a very competitive team with an outside shot of making some serious noise in baseball’s toughest division.

BALTIMORE ORIOLES
2009 Record: 64-98, 5th
2010 Prediction: 72-90, 4th

Key Additions: RHP Kevin Millwood, 1B Garrett Atkins, 3B Miguel Tejada, RP Mike Gonzalez
Key Departures: 3B Melvin Mora, RP Chris Ray
Player to Watch: C Matt Wieters

The Orioles appear poised to finally move out of the East Division’s basement, after suffering the indignant fate of having the worst record in the American League last season.

Tejada's Back With The O's, Playing 3rd Base

The O’s batting order will be a formidable one. We already know what Adam Jones can do in the field, but expect the All-Star outfielder to breakout at the plate and reach the 25 HR/100 RBI plateaus. Solid, consistent production will continue from Nick Markakis and Brian Roberts, who is expected to be ready for the start of the season as he recovers from a herniated disc in his back. And watch out for former 2007 1st Round Pick (5th overall) Matt Wieters, who will assume everyday catching duties and has the potential to hit 20+ bombs and drive in a ton of runs. Despite losing Melvin Mora to free agency in the offseason, Baltimore bolstered their infield by signing Garrett Atkins and bringing back Miguel Tejada – although time will tell how well he will adapt to his new position at 3rd base after playing his entire career at shortstop.

The biggest questions continue to surround the O’s pitching staff. However, if starters Jeremy Guthrie and newcomer Kevin Millwood can munch up innings and provide quality starts at the top of the rotation this season, it will certainly take some of the pressure off of young guns Brian Matusz and Brad Bergesen, who are expected to contribute this season as the #3 and #4 starters.

Expect some modest gains this season as the O’s begin to head in the right direction toward building themselves into a contender again after a decade of losing baseball.

TORONTO BLUE JAYS
2009 Record: 75-87, 4th
2010 Prediction: 65-97, 5th

Key Additions: OF Joey Gathright, SS Alex Gonzalez, RHP Brandon Morrow, RP Kevin Gregg, C John Buck
Key Departures: RHP Roy Halladay, C Rod Barajas, SS Marco Scutaro
Player to Watch: RF Travis Snider

Manager Cito Gaston certainly has his work cut out for him as the youth movement is clearly underway in Toronto under new GM Alex Anthopoulos, who hopes to rebuild the Jays into a contender after taking over for the departed JP Ricciardi. Only don’t expect any quick fixes in the ‘10 season.

The Jays Need Aaron Hill To Have Another Big Year

Outside of Aaron Hill and Adam Lind, both coming off breakout seasons in 2009, the Jays have more holes in their lineup than the front nine at Glen Abbey. Vernon Wells will be counted on for production and leadership, which sounds like a reasonable request considering he’s set to earn $21 million this season (and $86 million more through 2014). Just don’t be surprised when Wells – who’s averaged a mere 17 homeruns and 75 RBI over the past 3 seasons – continues to provide diminishing returns on the Jays biggest investment. The loss of Scutaro and Rod Barajas also leaves gaping holes at the top and middle of the batting order respectively. There are many more question marks, including: Can Lyle Overbay return to form at the plate? Is Ricky Ruiz cut out to be a full-time DH? Will Alex Gonzalez and John McDonald be able to provide capable and consistent play at Short? Is Travis Snider ready to emerge as a consistent power threat in the middle of the Jays order? For the Jays sake, the answer better be “yes” to these questions, or they may find themselves lacking the ability to compete on a nightly basis in the tough AL East.

The starting pitching is also in shambles following the trading of staff ace Roy Halladay to the Phillies in the offseason. Granted, Anthopoulos did a solid job getting three blue-chip prospects in return for Doc – including a potential future ace in Kyle Drabek. But in the meantime, Gaston will be forced to cobble together a rotation of unproven starters that include Ricky Romero, Brandon Morrow, Scott Richmond (who starts the season on the 60-day DL), Brad Mills, David Purcey, Marc Rzepczynski and Brett Cecil. Based on that B-list, the Jays are holding out hope that Shaun Marcum and Dustin McGowan can return to form after significant injuries sidelined both for the entire 2009 season.

In assessing his team’s strengths and weaknesses this spring, Gaston was quoted as saying, “Because we’re not quite sure about the pitching, I think the strength of this club right now has got to be the hitters.” Well, one thing’s for sure. Unlike Wells, at least we know Gaston will earn his paycheck this season. For Jays fans, there’s always next year.